If you ask any die hard NFL fan what is a great bet to make, many will come up with the same answer. It's an answer that has been passed down from generation of NFL Bettor to the next. The answer: "Take the Home Underdog!" The logic is pretty straight forward, the team is playing at home, the players feel boosted by their fans... The bet is considered in folklore as being an absolute sure thing when placed on a Monday night.
There is one problem with this legend: its not true. The PhD Statistician that I hired to run a regression of all sports betting outcomes over the past 15 years came up with a very different answer. It is never a good idea to bet the underdog playing at home. I don't know the reasoning, maybe because the odds makers handicap the home underdog by a couple of points because of this powerful betting legend, but take heed, betting the home dog is merely a legend.
The results of my PhD Statistician's research proved conclusively that home underdogs win against the point spread anywhere from 41-47% of the time. Hence, picking the other side against home NFL underdogs will win anywhere from 53-59% of the games. I have always felt there is truth in numbers and when you take seasons and seasons worth of data and they lead to clear conclusions, there is value to be had. You only need to win 52.7% of your NFL bets to win money and here is one that is destroying the NFL betting public.
There is one problem with this legend: its not true. The PhD Statistician that I hired to run a regression of all sports betting outcomes over the past 15 years came up with a very different answer. It is never a good idea to bet the underdog playing at home. I don't know the reasoning, maybe because the odds makers handicap the home underdog by a couple of points because of this powerful betting legend, but take heed, betting the home dog is merely a legend.
The results of my PhD Statistician's research proved conclusively that home underdogs win against the point spread anywhere from 41-47% of the time. Hence, picking the other side against home NFL underdogs will win anywhere from 53-59% of the games. I have always felt there is truth in numbers and when you take seasons and seasons worth of data and they lead to clear conclusions, there is value to be had. You only need to win 52.7% of your NFL bets to win money and here is one that is destroying the NFL betting public.
